Bullish Case: Improved European expansion and increasing adoption of microinverters, coupled with positive investor sentiment, suggest potential rebound. The technology innovation and policy support in the solar sector could drive growth.

Bearish Case: High price-to-book ratio, macroeconomic uncertainties, and competition issues present significant challenges. Regulatory changes and valuation concerns could lead to continued pressure on Enphase's stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

• Market rebounds (40% chance) driven by product innovation and policy support.
• Continued volatility leads to declines (35% chance) due to macroeconomic pressures.
• Technological breakthroughs drive growth (25% chance).

Trading Oracle:

Consider a Bullish Short Volatility strategy by selling ATM put and buying more OOTM put. The term structure indicates elevated implied volatility, making it favorable to capitalize on time decay, with potential return driven by stabilizing market conditions.

April 11, 2025