EQR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EQR has shown a recent price increase of 12.4% in 90 days and insider buys indicate confidence. Low implied volatility suggests limited downside, offering bullish opportunities.


Bearish Case: Flat historical price action and significant insider sales could indicate potential downside. High implied volatility short-term reflects uncertainty, signaling caution.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Sideways movement: 50%.

2) ~5% decline post-earnings: 20%.

3) ~10% rise due to positive market sentiment: 30%. Calculations are based on historical returns and current implied volatility.


Trading Oracle: Construct a short put credit spread at $65/$60 strikes expiring in ~30 days. High profit probability (75%) leveraging Helium’s model. EQR’s limited downside risk and mean reversion support this bullish, short volatility strategy.


July 16, 2024


Equity Residential Properties Forecast

EQR      Equity Residential Properties











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with EQR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.41)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to EQR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.41)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against EQR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.69)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.56)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.28)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.41)





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