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ESS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ESS benefits from strong institutional backing, robust demand in tech hubs, and a history of dividend growth. Implied volatility suggests potential upward price movement.

Bearish Case: Interest rate hikes and regulatory uncertainties in California pose risks. High exposure to cyclical real estate markets could pressure valuations downward.

Potential Outcomes: 30%: Steady tech-driven demand boosts prices, achieving a 12% upside.
40%: Stabilization with minimal movement, given current volatility.
30%: Interest rate hikes suppress valuations, potentially causing a 5% drop.

April 19, 2025

Essex Property Trust Forecast

ESS Essex Property Trust

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ESS

HIG Hartford Financial Services (0.84)

SPYD SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (0.84)

ECL Ecolab (0.81)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.8)

ADC Agree Realty (0.79)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESS

FLNC Fluence Energy (-0.01)

FEZ SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.01)

XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.02)

BB BlackBerry (-0.02)

SAM Boston Beer Co. (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESS

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.6)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (-0.61)

XRX Xerox (-0.61)

NFE New Fortress Energy (-0.64)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.66)

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