ESTC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Elastic's growth in AI and cloud markets, coupled with strong product innovation, supports bullish sentiment. The implied volatility curve reflects potential upside opportunities.




Bearish Case: Competitive pressures and high valuation risks raise concerns. Volatility surface shows unstable outlook, indicating possible market correction or downturn.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of strong AI-driven growth, 30% potential market correction, 20% risk from competition causing price drops.




Trading Oracle: Opt for a bullish short volatility strategy: sell 1 $105 put, buy 1 $100 put expiring in 18 days. High profit probability with 21% potential return, aligning with positive edge forecasts and current low trading volumes.



February 04, 2025


Elastic Forecast

ESTC        Elastic











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ESTC



PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (0.68)


SYNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SYNA  Synaptics (0.66)


INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (0.65)


CARS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CARS  Cars.com (0.65)


SPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPT  Sprout Social (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESTC



BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (-0.0)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.0)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.0)


WB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WB  Weibo (-0.01)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESTC



SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.58)


CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (-0.58)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.59)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.6)


PSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSN  Parsons (-0.67)









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