ESTC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Elastic's strong cloud revenue and AI integration position it well for continued growth, with robust implied volatility supporting upside potential.




Bearish Case: Intensifying competition and insider sales, coupled with elevated implied volatility, may lead to investor caution and potential downward pressure on ESTC.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Cloud revenue boosts growth: 60% chance
  • Competitive challenges slow growth: 30% chance
  • External market shock causes volatility: 10% chance




Trading Oracle:

Utilize the Bullish Short Volatility strategy. This involves selling ATM put options and buying more OOTM put options, capitalizing on the current high implied volatility and potential for price recovery.



April 18, 2025


Elastic Forecast

ESTC        Elastic











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BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (0.64)


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESTC



BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.0)


PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (0.0)


TJX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TJX  TJX Companies (-0.0)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (-0.0)


LU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LU  Lufax Holding Ltd (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESTC



SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.53)


CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (-0.53)


CB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CB  Chubb (-0.59)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.68)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.68)









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