ESTC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Elastic's growth in AI and cloud markets, coupled with strong product innovation, supports bullish sentiment. The implied volatility curve reflects potential upside opportunities.




Bearish Case: Competitive pressures and high valuation risks raise concerns. Volatility surface shows unstable outlook, indicating possible market correction or downturn.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of strong AI-driven growth, 30% potential market correction, 20% risk from competition causing price drops.




Trading Oracle: Opt for a bullish short volatility strategy: sell 1 $105 put, buy 1 $100 put expiring in 18 days. High profit probability with 21% potential return, aligning with positive edge forecasts and current low trading volumes.



February 04, 2025


Elastic Forecast

ESTC        Elastic











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IRBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRBT  Irobot (0.6)


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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ESTC



BMEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMEA  Biomea Fusion (-0.0)


DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (-0.0)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ESTC



CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (-0.58)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.58)


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VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.6)


PSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSN  Parsons (-0.67)









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