EWH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: EWH’s price is likely to rebound due to historically mean-reverting patterns, currently trading at all-time lows and increased bullish option trades. Historical returns suggest a potential for short-term recovery.


Bearish Case: Hong Kong's prolonged political unrest, combined with low implied volatility and a declining five-year trend impact, suggest continued downward pressure on EWH. The Helium AI predicts unfavorable returns.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Bearish continuation (35%) due to political risk.

2) Mean reversion rally (35%) from all-time lows.

3) Stagnation (30%) driven by low volatility.


Trading Oracle: Sell a bullish short volatility spread expiring in ~73 days: sell 3 $16.0 strike puts, buy 7 $14.0 strike puts. High 76% market profit odds with a 1:0.2 reward-to-risk ratio. This strategy utilizes mean reversion and low volatility trends.


July 13, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong Forecast

EWH      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong











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