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AI FAZ Forecast

Bullish Case: If the financial sector shows unexpected strength, FAZ could see a sharp increase, driven by rising implied volatility and potential market distress as reflected in recent spikes in market surface volatility.

Bearish Case: Continued stability in the financial markets may lead to a decline in FAZ, influenced by recent low implied volatility trends and a generally bearish sentiment across options positions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. FAZ price increases to $10-12 (40%);

2. Price remains flat around $8.70 (45%);

3. Drops below $8 (15%), as volatility suppresses demand due to sustained market stability.

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August 23, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FAZ

SRTY ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (0.96)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.96)

SH ProShares Short S&P500 (0.96)

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (0.94)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FAZ

ARCH Arch Resources (-0.0)

GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties (0.0)

CFLT Confluent (-0.0)

HES Hess (-0.0)

WEC WEC Energy (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FAZ

JPM JPMorgan Chase (-0.98)

VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (-0.99)

FAS Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (-0.99)

IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value (-0.99)

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (-1.0)

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