Bullish Case: Increased copper demand from the green energy transition supports FCX. The mean-reverting price nature may enhance return potential amid stable market conditions.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical risks and potential supply increases could pressure copper prices. High operational costs further challenge FCX's profitability, possibly weighing on stock prices.

Potential Outcomes:

• 60% chance of stable copper demand fueling moderate price gains.
• 30% potential for economic downturn impacting prices negatively.
• 10% chance geopolitical tensions disrupt operations.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying the $40 call and selling the $45 call expiring in June 2025. This setup exploits expected gradual copper price increases with a positive risk-reward ratio and a 70% probability of profit. Given current implied volatilities, adjust positions dynamically as market conditions evolve.

February 13, 2025