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FFWM Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Institutional backing and strategic shifts at First Foundation might drive recovery as the company sheds high-cost liabilities and refines operations, offering potential upside.



Bearish Case: Persistent financial losses, exposure to commercial real estate, and high debt levels paint a challenging picture for FFWM, with potential for further downturns if economic conditions worsen.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance: Institutional and strategic shifts drive recovery.
  • 40% chance: Ongoing debt challenges cause stock decline.
  • 30% chance: Sideways movement due to mixed market signals.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish debit spread, buying the FFWM 07/18/2025 5.00 Put at $0.66 and selling the 04/17/2025 5.00 Put at $0.48. This strategy leverages expected downside, benefiting from likely price declines while managing volatility risk. Optimize over a 1 to 3-month horizon.


February 01, 2025


First Foundation Forecast

FFWM        First Foundation

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