Bullish Case: FFWM could see a significant turnaround due to improved leadership and institutional backing, along with strategic shifts which may regain investor confidence and spark a rally, especially given the historical return surface showing probable gains after 1-2 years.

Bearish Case: Increased volatility and high put options volume signal potential risks from ongoing debt issues and economic pressures. If institutional investors lose faith or economic conditions worsen, FFWM may face further declines, as indicated by the lower historical returns seen in past downturns.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40%: Institutional investment supports price recovery due to leadership changes.
• 30%: Increased volatility leads to declines as investors react to economic pressures.
• 30%: Sideways movement if mixed signals continue from market sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, purchasing FFWM 04/17/2025 7.50 Call at $1.10 and selling 10.00 Call at $0.35 to capitalize on potential rebound. The high implied volatility suggests a market anticipating movement, while banking on the strategic revamp may offer a favorable risk-reward ratio.

December 20, 2024