FMS Forecast


Bullish Case: FMS has shown strong mean reversion in recent price action and significant call option activity suggests bullish sentiment. Historical returns indicate relative stability for holding periods beyond one year.


Bearish Case: FMS is down significantly over the years and recent options data show high implied volatility, indicating uncertainty. Mean reversion might not be enough to counter the overall bearish trend.


Potential Outcomes: Potential near-term price rise (+15% chance) with continued high volatility. Longer-term stabilization with moderate gains/losses (~40% likelihood). Significant drop remains a lesser probability event (~25%).


Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and mean reverting nature, initiate a bullish debit spread (e.g., Bull Call Spread). Focus on a 1-2 month horizon to leverage implied volatility levels. Expect modest upward price action while controlling downside risk.


June 28, 2024


Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA - Forecast

FMS      Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA -











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Assets that tend to move strongly against FMS



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