FMS Forecast


Bullish Case: FMS has shown strong mean reversion in recent price action and significant call option activity suggests bullish sentiment. Historical returns indicate relative stability for holding periods beyond one year.


Bearish Case: FMS is down significantly over the years and recent options data show high implied volatility, indicating uncertainty. Mean reversion might not be enough to counter the overall bearish trend.


Potential Outcomes: Potential near-term price rise (+15% chance) with continued high volatility. Longer-term stabilization with moderate gains/losses (~40% likelihood). Significant drop remains a lesser probability event (~25%).


Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and mean reverting nature, initiate a bullish debit spread (e.g., Bull Call Spread). Focus on a 1-2 month horizon to leverage implied volatility levels. Expect modest upward price action while controlling downside risk.


June 28, 2024


Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA - Forecast

FMS      Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co. KGaA -











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FMS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.02)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.05)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.39)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.26)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.02)





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