UCO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Increased institutional interest and short-term momentum, with UCO recently crossing the 200-day moving average, indicate potential for a positive rebound.


Bearish Case: Historical data indicates long-term underperformance with significant losses. The current implied volatility surface also suggests heightened uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: Price stabilization (45%), continued long-term downtrend (30%), short-term uptick (25%) due to recent momentum.


Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish put credit spread expiring in ~10 days. Sell the $33.0 put and buy the $32.0 put. This strategy leverages current volatility and has a high probability of profit. Expectation: Stabilization or minor upward movement.


July 18, 2024


ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Forecast

UCO      ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UCO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.78)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UCO



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.31)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.78)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UCO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.78)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.07)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.31)





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