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FMY Forecast


Bullish Case: FMY's historical price return surface suggests potential for recovering returns, particularly if economic conditions stabilize and mortgage rates decline, encouraging investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Rising defaults and persistent inflation may limit FMY's rebound, pushing prices down further as market sentiment remains cautious, leading to greater selling pressure.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery to $13 (40% chance) with improving economic conditions.


2. Decline to $10 (30% chance) driven by rising defaults.


3. Sideways movement around $12 (20% chance) as markets digest news.


4. Sell-off below $10 (10% chance) during economic downturn.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread on FMY targeting a price rebound within 1-2 months as economic sentiment improves and volatility stabilizes. Focus on limiting risk while capitalizing on potential upside from dividend announcements and easing mortgage rates.


November 28, 2024


First Trust Mortgage Income Forecast

FMY        First Trust Mortgage Income

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Assets that tend to move strongly with FMY


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (0.8)


DHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DHI  D.R. Horton (0.77)


IIPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IIPR  Innovative Industrial Properties (0.76)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.75)


IBB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IBB  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.73)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FMY


TTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTC  Toro (-0.0)


IMNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMNM  Immunome (-0.01)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.01)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.01)


VRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNT  Verint Systems (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FMY


CHCT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHCT  Community Healthcare (-0.63)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.64)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.65)


ZI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZI  ZoomInfo (-0.65)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.67)


FMY News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.







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