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FOA Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The implied volatility surface shows robust demand for short-term calls, suggesting bullish sentiment. Upcoming company announcements could positively impact investor confidence, potentially driving FOA prices higher, supported by call volume exceeding puts.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility in out-of-the-money puts indicates heightened risk perceptions. Ongoing operational challenges and potential regulatory issues may hinder price recovery, resulting in downward pressure on FOA.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful implementation of HMBS 2.0: 30%
  • Significant market share gains in reverse mortgage: 25%
  • Continued layoffs leading to further operational strain: 20%
  • Risk of NYSE delisting persists: 15%
  • Market disruptions adversely affect performance: 10%



Trading Oracle: Leverage a bull call spread using FOA 12/20/2024 20.00 C options while taking advantage of current high implied volatility. Consider additional strategies around January 2025 earnings to maximize potential upside while mitigating risks. Focus on capturing volatility spikes with low-cost positions.


November 26, 2024


Finance of America Companies Forecast

FOA        Finance of America Companies

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOA


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (0.93)


VRNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNA  Verona Pharma (0.92)


EVGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVGO  EVgo (0.9)


TRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRP  TC Energy (0.89)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOA


IGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGT  International Game Technology (0.0)


DDOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDOG  Datadog (0.0)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (0.01)


SOXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOXS  Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (0.01)


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOA


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (-0.84)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.86)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.86)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (-0.9)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (-0.91)







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