FOSL Forecast


Bullish Case: Despite recent price declines, Fossil's strong brand portfolio and e-commerce strategies could drive growth amidst a shift to tech-integrated offerings.


Bearish Case: FOSSIL faces strong headwinds from sustainability trends and a shift to smarter, greener technologies, resulting in sustained price declines and negative market sentiment.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30%: Regulatory shifts favor non-fossil initiatives, hurting demand.

2. 50%: Continued brand decline amidst sustainability shifts.

3. 20%: Strategic innovations stabilize revenue.


Trading Oracle: Execute bear put spreads with a 1-3 month timeframe. Historical data and negative sentiment favor short-term bearish positions. Optimal positions in the 09/20/2024 2.00 P options with implied volatility over 140% suggest significant bearish potential.


July 18, 2024


Fossil Forecast

FOSL      Fossil











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FOSL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.37)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FOSL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FOSL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.37)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.18)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.51)





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