Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: FOX may rally if upcoming earnings outperform expectations, particularly from ad revenue growth post-expansion and increased viewership due to upcoming events. Implied volatility suggests modest confidence in this potential surge.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility, particularly near-term, signals potential market anxiety. Continued competition in streaming and unfavorable regulatory impacts could result in price declines, especially if short-sellers capitalize on volatility spikes.

Potential Outcomes:

• 45% chance of price increase driven by strong Q4 earnings.
• 30% chance of stagnation due to market competition.
• 25% chance of a drop influenced by geopolitical volatility.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread, buying the FOX $50 call and selling the $55 call expiring in January 2025. This leverages anticipated earnings positivity while containing risk amidst high implied volatility. Focus on limited risk with a strong reward-to-risk ratio.

December 18, 2024