Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Fastly's adoption of a flat-rate pricing model might significantly boost customer acquisition, driven by strong demand for edge computing services, enhancing revenue growth and share price recovery.

Bearish Case: Continued high debt levels combined with unresolved financial issues may persistently undermine investor confidence, leading to further price declines amidst elevated market volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. EBITDA profitability achieved (45% chance).

2. Successful flat-rate pricing boosts growth (40% chance).

3. Continued slow revenue growth amid market pressures (50% chance).

4. High debt leads to negative sentiment and stock decline (60% chance).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long call spread targeting $8.00/$9.00 with near-term expiration. Given the current volatility structure and mean reversion trends, capturing high implied volatility while limiting risk can yield substantial returns (31% potential return). Leverage the positive edge and monitor upcoming earnings for catalysts.

November 03, 2024