AI FV Forecast

Bullish Case: Strong historical returns for FV indicate a potential rebound, especially given the low implied volatility suggesting market overreaction. Increasing bullish sentiment could catalyze positive momentum.


Bearish Case: Current high implied volatility signals significant market uncertainty, suggesting a strong possibility of downward pressure on prices due to macroeconomic factors and potential negative sentiment shifts.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price stagnation (40%);

2. Moderate increase (+2%) driven by favorable conditions (25%);

3. Sharp decline (-3%) due to external pressures (20%);

4. Major rally (+5%) fueled by positive market sentiment (15%).


Trading Oracle: Establish a short volatility credit spread targeting strikes around $55, leveraging high market implied volatility. This strategy captures premium under anticipated stability, targeting profitable outcomes within the next 30 days.


September 19, 2024


First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 Forecast

FV        First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund III - First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FV



TECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECL  Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (0.96)


TQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TQQQ  ProShares UltraPro QQQ (0.96)


XLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLK  Technology Select Sector SPDR (0.95)


QLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QLD  ProShares Ultra QQQ (0.95)


SMH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMH  VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FV



ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.0)


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (0.0)


KSS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KSS  Kohl's (0.01)


UA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UA  Under Armour (-0.01)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FV



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.9)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.9)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.91)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.92)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.93)









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