FWRG Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: FWRG shows a strong recent uptrend, potentially driven by institutional support and improving market sentiment. Historical price returns indicate a likelihood of continued upward movement.




Bearish Case: Concerns over insider selling and current high put option volumes suggest potential near-term weakness. Additionally, increased SPY volatility could impact broader market sentiment.




Potential Outcomes: Price stabilization around $22 is likely (70%), moderate decline to $18 (20%) due to insider selling, or a rally to $25 (10%) if institutional buying intensifies.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit call spread, buying $22.50 call and selling $25.00 call, targeting late March expiration. Leverage recent price gains and manage risks with controlled upside exposure. Potential favorable implied volatility as indicated by FWRG option surfaces.



February 18, 2025


First Watch Restaurant Forecast

FWRG        First Watch Restaurant











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with FWRG



TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.83)


CRNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNC  Cerence (0.8)


USAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USAC  USA Compression (0.77)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (0.75)


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to FWRG



WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.0)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (-0.0)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.0)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.01)


ARGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARGT  Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against FWRG



OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (-0.7)


FFIE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FFIE  Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (-0.71)


AMRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMRC  Ameresco (-0.72)


EXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXR  Extra Space Storage (-0.76)


EPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPI  WisdomTree India Earnings (-0.83)









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