FXY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: FXY's flat term structure suggests undervalued volatility, with social media optimism and call option interest pointing to short-term strength amid potential yen appreciation.




Bearish Case: The historical mean-reversion and long-term decline highlight persistent bearish pressures, with market skepticism about Japan's policies potentially weakening the yen further.




Potential Outcomes:

1) 45% chance FXY rebounds above $61, reflecting bullish sentiment.

2) 35% chance continues decline below $58.

3) 20% stays range-bound near $60 due to mean-reversion.




Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish debit spread: Buy March $60 calls, sell March $62 calls. Capitalize on short-term upward bias and undervalued volatility. Monitor closely; shift to bearish credit spreads if upside stalls. High reward:risk, informed by term structure and call volumes.



February 13, 2025


Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Forecast

FXY        Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen











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Assets that tend to move strongly against FXY



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KRP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KRP  Kimbell Royalty Partners (-0.73)


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