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GBTC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The steep contango and increased call trading volumes suggest optimism about GBTC's market potential. Despite previous ETF rejections, the shrinking discount to NAV indicates strong institutional interest.

Bearish Case: Persistent high fees and competition from other ETFs suggest downward pressure on GBTC. Historical mean reversion implies limited upside, and SEC's past actions cast doubt on ETF conversion success.

Potential Outcomes: Approval of BlackRock's ETF (40%) boosts prices. Continued outflows (30%) and legal challenges (30%) could suppress growth. Watch market sentiment closely.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a cautiously bullish stance with call debit spreads on GBTC, targeting Q2 2025. Focus on ATM strikes benefiting from any positive regulatory news. Expected price recovery amid volatility can leverage high reward-risk setups.

February 21, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GBTC

GTLS Chart Industries (0.91)

CXW CoreCivic (0.88)

AAL American Airlines (0.84)

ASAN Asana (0.81)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (0.8)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GBTC

TRI Thomson-Reuters (0.0)

ENVX Enovix (-0.0)

SEE Sealed Air (0.0)

ETSY Etsy (0.01)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GBTC

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.68)

PEP Pepsico (-0.69)

OLED Universal Display (-0.7)

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.71)

FXE Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (-0.77)

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