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GBTC Forecast


Bullish Case: Regulatory approval for ETF conversion could eliminate the NAV discount, attracting institutional investors and increasing GBTC's price significantly.



Bearish Case: Regulatory hurdles and high fees, compounded by competition from new ETFs, could sustain the discount to NAV, discouraging investor interest.



Potential Outcomes:
  • ETF Conversion (30%): Sharply narrows discount, boosts price.
  • Regulatory Delay (20%): Maintains status quo, limits price movement.
  • Increased Competition (30%): Widens discount, depresses price.
  • Legal Hurdles (20%): Increase uncertainty and volatility.


April 16, 2025


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GBTC        Grayscale Bitcoin

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GBTC


CXW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CXW  CoreCivic (0.87)


GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (0.86)


IONQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IONQ  IonQ (0.85)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (0.84)


AROC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AROC  Archrock (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GBTC


WNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WNS  WNS Holdings Limited (-0.0)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OVV  Ovintiv (0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.0)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (0.0)


JANX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JANX  Janux Therapeutics (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GBTC


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.77)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.78)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.79)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (-0.79)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.81)







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