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GD Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong contract wins and resilient demand in defense sector bolster revenue growth, coupled with favorable implied volatility trends boosting investor confidence.

Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential defense budget cuts create uncertainty, with recent insider selling signaling potential stock pressure.

Potential Outcomes: 45% probability of revenue growth from new contracts; 25% chance of volatility affecting stock; 20% likelihood of geopolitical changes reducing defense budgets; 10% chance of underperformance due to operational issues.

Trading Oracle: Sell short-term bull put credit spreads near $240 strike, aimed at capturing premium decay with GD's implied volatility backwardation. Leverage stable outlook with high reward-to-risk ratio, expiring in 60 days.

February 25, 2025

General Dynamics Forecast

GD General Dynamics

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Uncorrelated Assets

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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GD

CRNC Cerence (-0.66)

RLX RLX Technology (-0.66)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.67)

NET Cloudflare (-0.67)

ASAN Asana (-0.8)

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