GSM Forecast


Bullish Case: Ferroglobe's strategic partnerships and robust demand for silicon secure future growth, strengthened by favorable term structure and positive historical returns.


Bearish Case: Macroeconomic uncertainties, elevated volatility, and potential supply chain disruptions threaten Ferroglobe's stability, as flagged by current investor sentiment and recent flat price action.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of meeting/ exceeding forecasts due to strategic partnerships and silicon demand. 30% probability of downside from macroeconomic factors. 10% risk of extreme volatility due to geopolitical factors and market sentiment shifts.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread (Helium Long Volatility): Buy September '24 $5 Call, Sell January '25 $7 Call. High implied volatility and strategic partnerships bolster the bullish bias. Time outlook: 3-6 months. Excellent reward:risk with positive edge.


July 21, 2024


Ferroglobe Forecast

GSM      Ferroglobe











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GSM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.05)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.32)





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