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GVA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent border wall contract boosts revenue prospects. Decreasing volatility and strategic positioning suggest resilience, hinting at potential recovery in price after recent dips.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent mean reversion trends could drive down prices. Economic instability and missed earnings may lead to bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery above $80 (40%);

2. Volatility-induced drop to $70 (35%);

3. Steady around $76 (25%).

March 20, 2025

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GVA Granite Construction

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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MTB M & T (0.96)

BLK Blackrock (0.95)

MTZ Mastec (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GVA

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (-0.0)

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.01)

INTU Intuit (0.01)

ACGL Arch (-0.01)

VGIT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GVA

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.87)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.89)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.89)

WU Western Union (-0.91)

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (-0.94)

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