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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Hillenbrand's strong historical return potential, supported by bullish trends in recent acquisitions and macroeconomic factors, enhances confidence for price recovery, particularly if market conditions stabilize.

Bearish Case: The prevailing extreme implied volatility suggests heightened market fears that could lead to significant price drops. Economic uncertainties and declining past performances add to the bearish sentiment.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Market rally with a 30% chance;

2) Continued bearish trend with 50% likelihood;

3) Stabilization in the macroeconomic environment driving moderate growth, 20% probability.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy with debit spreads, focusing on a $35 call option due to its high potential upside amid current volatility. This leverages the low relative implied volatility for enhanced returns, expecting price recovery in the near term.

August 16, 2024