HOG Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: HOG's recent options activity reflects heightened investor interest, driven by new product launches and participation in brand events. This could boost sales and stock performance, particularly if positive earnings are reported.




Bearish Case: Ongoing economic pressures, high recall risk, and potential negative repercussions from tariffs suggest a turbulent outlook for HOG. The market remains skeptical, as indicated by low momentum and falling prices.




Potential Outcomes:
  1. Positive earnings surprise (30% chance, driven by strong sales projections).
  2. Continued sales decline as economic pressures worsen (40% chance).
  3. Successful product launch leads to increased market share (20% chance).
  4. Tariff impact reduces profit margins (10% chance).




Trading Oracle: Given the current implied volatility, consider initiating a debit spread by buying HOG 34 calls and selling 35 calls expiring in ~32 days. This strategy capitalizes on volatility spikes and targets an upward price movement. Target a 75% probability of profit with a favorable risk-reward ratio.



December 18, 2024


Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG        Harley-Davidson











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Anticorrelated Assets

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PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (-0.54)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.57)


TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (-0.57)


FOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOSL  Fossil (-0.59)









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