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HOG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: HOG's recent options activity reflects heightened investor interest, driven by new product launches and participation in brand events. This could boost sales and stock performance, particularly if positive earnings are reported.



Bearish Case: Ongoing economic pressures, high recall risk, and potential negative repercussions from tariffs suggest a turbulent outlook for HOG. The market remains skeptical, as indicated by low momentum and falling prices.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Positive earnings surprise (30% chance, driven by strong sales projections).
  2. Continued sales decline as economic pressures worsen (40% chance).
  3. Successful product launch leads to increased market share (20% chance).
  4. Tariff impact reduces profit margins (10% chance).



Trading Oracle: Given the current implied volatility, consider initiating a debit spread by buying HOG 34 calls and selling 35 calls expiring in ~32 days. This strategy capitalizes on volatility spikes and targets an upward price movement. Target a 75% probability of profit with a favorable risk-reward ratio.


December 18, 2024


Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG        Harley-Davidson

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HOG


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (0.76)


BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (0.65)


ABSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABSI  Absci (0.63)


EVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVH  Evolent Health (0.63)


BRKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BRKR  Bruker (0.63)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOG


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (-0.0)


TZOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZOO  Travelzoo (0.0)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.0)


ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (0.0)


IHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IHI  BTC iShares U.S. Medical (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOG


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.53)


PANW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PANW  Palo Alto Networks (-0.54)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.57)


TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (-0.57)


FOSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOSL  Fossil (-0.59)







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