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HOG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Harley-Davidson's potential growth in Asian markets, combined with product innovation like EVs, could boost sales, riding on increasing brand loyalty and recovering stock trends.

Bearish Case: Persisting economic pressures, increased competition, and historical underperformance may continue to exert downward pressure on HOG's stock, preventing a substantial recovery.

Potential Outcomes: HOG's growth hinge on Asian market success (40%), hindered by economic headwinds (60%). Expect flat performance (80%) unless successful model launches.

Trading Oracle: Sell OTM call credit spreads ($34/$36) expiring in 60 days to capitalize on high implied volatility and recent flatness ($100). Probability >75%, focusing on a high reward:risk due to consistent historical price stability.

January 22, 2025

Harley-Davidson Forecast

HOG Harley-Davidson

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with HOG

OPCH Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.8)

ABEV Ambev (0.75)

LEA Lear (0.75)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (0.74)

BGS B&G Foods (0.74)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HOG

ED Consolidated Edison (0.0)

OTIS Otis Worldwide (-0.01)

SKYT SkyWater Technology (0.01)

UUUU Energy Fuels (-0.01)

KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HOG

TXRH Texas Roadhouse (-0.69)

HSBC HSBC (-0.72)

CRK Comstock Resources (-0.74)

WRBY Warby Parker (-0.76)

MAIN Main Street (-0.78)

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* Disclaimer: Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Helium Trades is not responsible in any way for the accuracy of any model predictions or price data. Any mention of a particular security and related prediction data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Helium Trades is not responsible for any of your investment decisions, you should consult a financial expert before engaging in any transaction.