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HP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: HP appears undervalued with stable long-term returns despite recent volatility. Sector rotation into energy could boost growth.



Bearish Case: Consistent historical underperformance and current volume bias towards puts suggest continued bearish sentiment, risking further declines.



Potential Outcomes: HP likely to stabilize around $35 as market adjusts (50%). A rebound to $40 possible with sector strength (30%). Further decline to $30 if bearish trends continue (20%).



Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread: buy HP $32.50 call, sell $35 call expiring in June. This leverages lower volatility and current uptrend, targeting 140% return. Favorable probability with manageable risk in current bullish setup. Key edge lies in potential sector recovery and undervaluation.


January 24, 2025


Helmerich & Payne Forecast

HP        Helmerich & Payne

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Assets that tend to move strongly with HP


NINE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NINE  Nine Energy Service (0.88)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.87)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (0.83)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.83)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to HP


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.01)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (0.01)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (-0.01)


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (-0.02)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against HP


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.71)


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (-0.72)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.73)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.74)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.74)







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