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HP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: HP is undervalued with strong implied volatility suggesting potential for price recovery. Historical data favors positive returns over holding periods, indicating an attractive risk-reward setup for investors.



Bearish Case: Insider selling and negative historical trends indicate potential for continued downward pressure. Elevated implied volatility may reflect market concerns and uncertainties about HP's fundamentals.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Recovery to $40 (30% chance) due to sector sentiment shifts.

2. Decline to $30 (40% chance) if bearish trends persist.

3. Stabilization around $33-$34 (30% chance) if current market conditions hold.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish put spread by selling one $35 strike put (high volume, negative delta) and buying two $30 puts for downside protection. This exploits potential upward momentum and limited downside risk while targeting a 75% probability of profit with a positive edge.


October 27, 2024


Helmerich & Payne Forecast

HP        Helmerich & Payne

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