ILMN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Illumina's strong R&D and leadership in genomic sequencing provide long-term growth prospects, with opportunities in new markets despite regulatory challenges.




Bearish Case: Regulatory risks, Chinese bans, and high operational costs could further impact Illumina's financial performance, alongside rising competition.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Economy recovery boosts sales (25%)
  • Continued regulatory challenges (30%)
  • Resolution of Grail issues favorably (20%)
  • Market share erosion from competitors (25%)




Trading Oracle:

Given high implied volatility and regulatory risks, a Bearish Short Volatility strategy (selling ATM call options and buying OTM call options) exploits volatility overpricing.



March 30, 2025


Illumina Forecast

ILMN        Illumina











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