Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A recovering global economy could boost oil demand, supporting Imperial Oil's price. Technical analysis shows a resistance level at $80, with strong historical returns for long-term holdings signaling potential upside.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions and potential environmental regulations pose risks to Imperial Oil’s operations. High implied volatility reflects market jitters, suggesting short-term downside as investors remain cautious.

Potential Outcomes:

• Price Rally Above $80 (25%): Economic recovery leads to increased oil demand.
• Maintain Range Around $77 (40%): Steady demand balances out geopolitical concerns.
• Drop Below $70 (35%): Renewed negative sentiment slows down trading volume and confidence.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish debit spread by buying the $80 call and selling the $85 call, expiring within 30 days. Given the favorable implied volatility and historical price trends, this strategy allows upside potential while managing risk. The current option volume suggests demand for calls, reinforcing this bullish outlook.

November 24, 2024