IMO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: IMO's historical return surface indicates strong mean-reversion tendencies. With increasing call option volume and low current prices, upside potential is notable due to stable fundamentals.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strikes and recent price declines signal market uncertainty. Potential geopolitical risks and environmental regulations could pressure IMO long-term.




Potential Outcomes: Geopolitical tensions increase oil prices: 30%. Market stabilization varies price around $70: 40%. Regulatory impacts cause downside: 30%.




Trading Oracle: Enter bullish debit spreads by buying the $70 call and selling the $75 call, expiring August 2025. Utilize low-mid implied volatility, leveraging mean-reversion trends. This balances risk and high potential ROI amid market stability.



February 25, 2025


Imperial Oil Forecast

IMO        Imperial Oil











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