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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Rising oil prices due to geopolitical factors and stronger than expected Q3 results could drive IMO's price above $80. Increased demand post-summer along with potential dividend increases supports a bullish outlook.



Bearish Case: Operational disruptions from geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations may lead to declining refining margins, potentially pushing IMO's price below $70. Negative market sentiment and recent flat trading should not be overlooked.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil price surge due to geopolitical tension: 40%.

2. Stable demand from global economies allowing price upside: 35%.

3. Regulatory concerns leading to near-term price drop: 25%.



Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish debit spread by buying the $80 call and selling the $85 call, anticipating a moderate price increase in the next 40 days. Utilize the current high implied volatility to your advantage. With a strong margin for profit and a manageable risk profile, this strategy offers significant upside potential.


October 27, 2024


Imperial Oil Forecast

IMO        Imperial Oil

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