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IMO Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Despite environmental concerns, strong fundamentals, option volume favoring calls, and historical mean reversion suggest a supportive backdrop for price growth.

Bearish Case: Implied volatility remains high due to geopolitical risks and regulatory pressures. Historical market caution and environmental issues pose downside risks.

Potential Outcomes: Increased geopolitical tensions: 30%, lifting prices. Normalizing energy markets: 45%, stabilizing prices. Regulatory impacts: 25%, pressuring operations.

March 30, 2025

Imperial Oil Forecast

IMO Imperial Oil

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with IMO

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PHM PulteGroup (0.51)

UNH Unitedhealth (0.5)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IMO

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.01)

QGEN Qiagen (0.01)

ENVX Enovix (-0.01)

CLBT Cellebrite DI (0.01)

OPCH Option Care Health Inc. - Registered Shares (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IMO

BA Boeing (-0.31)

ETR Entergy (-0.31)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.31)

BB BlackBerry (-0.35)

HIMX Himax (-0.35)

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