INVA Forecast


Bullish Case: INVA's diversified product pipeline and promising antimicrobial candidate (zoliflodacin) can catalyze substantial growth. Positive ratings from analysts and recent institutional investments highlight upside potential [defenseworld.net][defenseworld.net][seekingalpha.com].


Bearish Case: Recent flat price action and high historical volatility reduce bullish confidence. The antimicrobials' access gaps in LMICs, institutional selling, and mixed AI forecast correlation underscore downside risks [cidrap.umn.edu][defenseworld.net][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful antimicrobial drug sales expansion: 45%.

2. Regulatory setbacks in LMICs: 30%.

3. Continued flat price trend: 25%. Analysis of the graphs supports these probabilities given historical return patterns and volatile outlook.


Trading Oracle: A short volatility strategy, such as selling iron condors, around current price strike (mid $16-$18 range) is advised. Near-term outlook (2-3 months) capitalizes on high IV crush potential and reduced variance in price direction as indicated by implied volatility surface graph.


June 30, 2024


Innoviva Forecast

INVA      Innoviva











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CARG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CARG  CarGurus (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to INVA



IGV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGV  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector (-0.0)


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CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.0)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against INVA



SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.81)


CHAU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHAU  Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (-0.81)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)


YUMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YUMC  Yum China (-0.83)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.88)





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