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IOVA Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Optimism around lifileucel's approval remains, given strong clinical data. Positive sentiment and recent call activity could push IOVA above $10, especially with upcoming milestones in FDA reviews.



Bearish Case: Despite current positive sentiment, historical instability and high implied volatility suggest significant downside risks. Market reactions to regulatory news could see IOVA dropping below $8 if FDA delays occur.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Positive FDA approval for lifileucel (45% chance)
  • Negative reactions to clinical hold or trial issues (25% chance)
  • Flat market response despite approval (30% chance)



Trading Oracle: Given the current high implied volatility, consider a bearish credit spread by selling the $10.00 calls (high volume) while buying the $11.00 calls for protection. Aim for a strong profit margin with a potential return of 28%, capitalizing on lower implied volatility in December.


November 23, 2024


Iovance Biotherapeutics Forecast

IOVA        Iovance Biotherapeutics

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