ITB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Rising housing demand and past mean reversion patterns suggest potential recovery. Call option volume indicates bullish sentiment.




Bearish Case: Economic pressures like rising interest rates and high volatility suggest a potential downturn. Put volume and historical price volatility reinforce this.




Potential Outcomes: 60% ITB rises with housing demand support; 30% downturn from economic pressures; 10% stability. Historical return surfaces and volatility insights support these.




Trading Oracle: Sell Jan 2025 $105 puts, buy $104 puts for a short vol strategy. Favor high volatility and mean-reversion. 30-day outlook, capitalizing on ITB's current levels and implied volatility.



January 05, 2025


BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction Forecast

ITB        BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ITB



SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.93)


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (0.93)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.86)


VTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTV  Vanguard Value (0.84)


SPLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLV  Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ITB



FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.01)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.02)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.02)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.02)


CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ITB



INDI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INDI  Indie Semiconductor (-0.72)


AMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMR  Alta Mesa Resources (-0.72)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.72)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.76)









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