ITB Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Robust housing demand and low inventory suggest a rebound in ITB prices, supported by historical mean reversion patterns. With lower volatility than market expectations, upward momentum seems likely.




Bearish Case: Economic pressures and rising interest rates pose risks to housing demand, potentially leading to downward price adjustments. High market implied volatility indicates increased uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. 60% chance of price growth as housing demand accelerates.
  • 2. 30% chance of moderate downturn due to economic factors.
  • 3. 10% chance of stability with minor fluctuations.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the $122.5 call and selling the $123.5 call, banking on bullish momentum and anticipated price recovery. With market odds at 70% likelihood of profit, it aligns perfectly with Helium's edge and aims for a strong reward-to-risk ratio.



December 03, 2024


BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction Forecast

ITB        BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ITB



PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (0.95)


NAIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NAIL  Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (0.95)


MHK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MHK  Mohawk Industries (0.95)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (0.93)


TPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPG  TPG (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ITB



CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.01)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.01)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (0.01)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (-0.01)


RRR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRR  Red Rock Resorts (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ITB



WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.79)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.8)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.8)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.81)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.83)


ITB News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.










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