ITB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ITB's historical mean reversion and housing demand support potential price rebound despite recent declines.




Bearish Case: Volatility is elevated and put volumes are high, indicating potential downside risk amid economic uncertainties.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of growth driven by housing demand.
  • 30% chance of downturn from economic pressures.
  • 10% stability due to mean reversion.




Trading Oracle:

Engage in Bearish Short Volatility: sell ATM call options, and buy more OTM call options. Elevated implied volatility and high put volume suggest potential bearish outcomes, providing profitable opportunities in bearish setups.



March 13, 2025


BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction Forecast

ITB        BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ITB



PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (0.96)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.9)


RARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RARE  Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (0.83)


MAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAS  Masco (0.79)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ITB



PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.0)


YPF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YPF  YPF (0.0)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.0)


ARKK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARKK  ARK Innovation (-0.0)


DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ITB



CRSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRSR  Corsair Gaming (-0.57)


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (-0.57)


ORC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORC  Orchid Island (-0.57)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.61)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)









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