IVR Forecast


Bullish Case: The bearish market sentiment may lead to undervaluation of IVR, creating an opportunity for substantial gains as fundamentals stabilize and dividends potentially increase, fueled by high institutional interest.


Bearish Case: Ongoing volatility and the risk of further dividend cuts could exacerbate price declines, while the current high levels of implied volatility suggest that market fears may drive negative sentiment and price action.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Dividend stabilization with 40% chance leading to price recovery.

2. Continued dividend cuts at 35% chance causing further price drops.

3. Market volatility persists at 25% chance, keeping IVR range-bound amidst uncertainty.


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July 25, 2024


Invesco Mortgage Forecast

IVR      Invesco Mortgage











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.25)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.09)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVR



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.09)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.33)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.25)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.09)





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