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JCI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: JCI's strategic investments in IoT and sustainability, alongside strong market positioning, indicate robust growth potential.

Bearish Case: Macroeconomic uncertainties and high implied volatility suggest potential downside, amplified by recent flat price action.

Potential Outcomes:

1. JCI meets guidance (65%).

2. Growth propelled by sustainability focus (15%).

3. Revenue falters amid economic pressure (20%).

Trading Oracle: Trade credit spreads on JCI 80/82.5 calls expiring in April 2025, leveraging high implied volatility for premium decay. This exploits current flat volatility structure, optimizing risk with high probability of profit.

January 28, 2025

Registered Shares Forecast

JCI Registered Shares

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with JCI

GVA Granite Construction (0.95)

AGX Argan (0.95)

MFC Manulife Financial (0.95)

KKR KKR (0.94)

TT Trane (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to JCI

SKYT SkyWater Technology (0.0)

AZN Astrazeneca (0.01)

APH Amphenol (0.01)

RIOT Riot Blockchain (0.02)

TMV Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JCI

IEP Icahn (-0.86)

LEA Lear (-0.87)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.87)

COTY Coty (-0.89)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)

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