JOBY Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Toyota's investment and FAA progress boost confidence in Joby's commercial launch potential, supported by bullish sentiment and increased call trading volume.




Bearish Case: High operational costs, regulatory delays, and market volatility pose significant risks, with elevated implied volatility indicating potential stock price pressure.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of FAA certification success by Q1 2025; 30% risk of delays; 20% risk of competition impacting margins. Probabilities reflect industry dynamics and market data.




Trading Oracle: Leverage bullish sentiment with a long call debit spread: buy $9.5 strike and sell $10.0 strike, expiring in 14 days. This strategy capitalizes on increased implied volatility and bullish volume, offering a high-reward potential with a positive edge.



December 28, 2024


Joby Aviation Forecast

JOBY        Joby Aviation











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