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JOBY Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Joby successfully secures FAA certification, supported by recent investments from Toyota, potentially leading to commercial operations in 2025 and significant stock appreciation due to increased demand for air taxis.



Bearish Case: Delays in FAA certification or regulatory hurdles hinder Joby's market entry, exacerbated by rising competition and increased operational costs, likely resulting in stock price declines and undermined investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful FAA certification by Q1 2025 (50% chance).

2. Delays and regulatory challenges (30% chance).

3. Increased competition within the eVTOL market affecting margins (15% chance).

4. Economic downturn impacting investment (5% chance).



Trading Oracle: Focus on bullish strategies utilizing call debit spreads, buying the $6.0 call and selling the $6.5 call expiring in ~10 days. This capitalizes on heightened implied volatility and anticipated positive momentum from FAA certification, providing a risk:reward profile of 1:2.5.


November 14, 2024


Joby Aviation Forecast

JOBY        Joby Aviation

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Uncorrelated Assets

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M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.01)


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FDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FDX  Fedex (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against JOBY


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MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.54)


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