LC Forecast


Bullish Case: Mean reversion combined with a mean-reverting environment and high short-term call volume makes a bullish case probable for short-term bounces.


Bearish Case: Historical declines, competitive pressures, and current bearish sentiment hint at potential downside, especially under the flat implied volatility surface.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued price stability (60%).

2) Short-term rally due to short squeeze (20%).

3) Further declines amid competitive market pressures (20%).


Trading Oracle: Given flat implied volatility, selling credit spreads is attractive. Execute short-term vertical call credit spreads (e.g., Oct/2024 10C) targeting premium decay and mean reversion. A slight bearish tilt leverages the competitive nature and historical decline pattern in LC, optimizing risk-reward.


July 16, 2024


LendingClub Forecast

LC      LendingClub











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.76)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.22)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)





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