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LCID Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Lucid's acquisition of Nikola's facilities could enhance production capabilities. The shift in EV buyers' sentiment from Tesla to Lucid presents growth opportunities, reflected in high call option volume.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strike prices indicates investor pessimism. Persistent production issues and competitive pressures, alongside financial instability, pose significant risks to Lucid's stability.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 40%: Successful integration of new facilities boosts growth.
  2. 30%: Financial struggles due to competitive pressure lead to stock decline.
  3. 20%: Acquisition generates significant operational challenges.
  4. 10%: Strategic partnerships refresh investor confidence.


April 19, 2025


Lucid Forecast

LCID        Lucid

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PII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PII  Polaris (0.59)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LCID


WNS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WNS  WNS Holdings Limited (-0.0)


ZBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZBH  Zimmer Biomet (0.01)


RPD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RPD  Rapid7 (0.01)


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.01)


HSIC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HSIC  Henry Schein (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LCID


FAST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAST  Fastenal (-0.52)


GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (-0.56)


MP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MP  MP Materials (-0.58)


TIPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TIPT  Tiptree (-0.59)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.61)







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