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LEU Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Strong governmental support for nuclear energy, coupled with Centrus Energy's near-monopoly on HALEU production, presents a substantial bullish case for LEU, potentially leading to further price appreciation.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility alongside significant price-to-book ratio concerns suggests overvaluation risks for LEU, potentially leading to a correction in share prices amid broader market adjustments.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of continued growth due to government funding (a);

2. 30% risk of mean reversion correcting prices downwards (b);

3. 20% likelihood of stabilization (c).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread: buy the $90 call and sell the $95 call with a near-term expiration. This aligns with projected upward movement in LEU, leveraging favorable volatility. Expect high reward from this positioning with a significant margin of error due to strong bullish sentiment around nuclear energy.


November 12, 2024


Centrus Energy Forecast

LEU        Centrus Energy

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