Bullish Case: Strong fundamentals and upcoming positive earnings reports could drive LOPE above $180, supported by historical trends of price resilience amidst bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Legal uncertainties and elevated put activity may trigger downward pressure, potentially pushing LOPE back towards $140 as investors reassess risk appetite.

Potential Outcomes:

• Positive Earnings Surprise (40%): Analyst upgrades could drive sentiment, elevating price towards $180.
• Legal Challenges Escalate (30%): Increased scrutiny may cause sell-offs, pushing price towards $140.
• Sideways Movement (30%): Market digests volatility and mixed signals, potentially leading to consolidation around $166.

Trading Oracle: Given the current flat implied volatility, consider a bull call spread by purchasing $170 calls and selling $180 calls with January expiration. This limits risk while capturing potential upsides from earnings momentum, leveraging the 59% bullish risk premium.

December 14, 2024