LRCX Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: LRCX may rebound as AI demand strengthens, with implied volatility suggesting a bullish sentiment. Positive earnings reports possible, driven by semiconductor growth.




Bearish Case: Persisting export restrictions and insider selling may depress stock prices, compounded by potential decreases in revenue forecasts leading to further market confidence erosion.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. AI growth leads to 70% stock recovery (60% chance)
  • 2. Export restrictions persist causing a 20% drop (25% chance)
  • 3. Insider trading results in 10% volatility (15% chance)




Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying LRCX $80 calls and selling $85 calls. With market odds of profit at 70%, aim for 2-week expiry. High positive edge given low implied volatility relative to historical norms, capitalizing on potential upside from improving AI demand.



November 27, 2024


Lam Research Forecast

LRCX        Lam Research











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LRCX



SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.93)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (0.92)


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (0.87)


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (0.85)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LRCX



WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (-0.0)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (-0.0)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.0)


ATUS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATUS  Altice USA (-0.0)


DKS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKS  Dicks Sporting Goods (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LRCX



VRNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNA  Verona Pharma (-0.84)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.84)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.85)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.87)


LRCX News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.










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