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LRCX Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: LRCX's robust AI demand and strategic innovations in EUV and dry etch technologies position the company for growth as semiconductor demand continues upward.

Bearish Case: Weak recent price action, high historical volatility, and significant geopolitical tensions with China suggest potential headwinds for LRCX's near-term performance.

Potential Outcomes: AI-driven growth continues (65%). Export restrictions more severe (25%). New competitor impacts minimal (10%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread expiring in 2 months. Buy LRCX $77 call, sell $82 call. Favorable conditions include high call volume and a declining IV curve, yielding a high probability of profit. High reward:risk dynamic given market sentiment and technical setups.

January 29, 2025

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LRCX Lam Research

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Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LRCX

ASML New York Shares (0.93)

ENTG Entegris (0.89)

AMAT Applied Materials (0.88)

SNPS Synopsys (0.78)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (0.78)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LRCX

DOMO Domo (-0.0)

PBPB Potbelly (-0.0)

LLY Lilly(Eli) (-0.0)

WY Weyerhaeuser (-0.01)

SU Suncor Energy (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LRCX

RVLV Revolve (-0.79)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.79)

CNX CNX Resources (-0.79)

TW Tradeweb Markets (-0.8)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (-0.86)

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