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LUMN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: LUMN's strategic restructuring and improved mean-reversion potential could drive positive momentum, supported by recent call volume spikes.

Bearish Case: Persistent high leverage, operational challenges, and elevated implied volatility indicate continued financial instability and potential downside.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization via restructuring (30%),

2. Further downside due to debt pressure (50%),

3. Unexpected positive tech breakthrough (20%).

Trading Oracle: Deploy a short-term bearish debit spread using $5.0 and $5.5 calls to exploit high implied volatility and downtrend sentiment. Focus on near-term expiration to maximize reward-to-risk ratio.

February 25, 2025

Lumen Forecast

LUMN Lumen

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LUMN

SHW Sherwin-Williams (0.92)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.87)

TPG TPG (0.85)

CINF Cincinnati Financial (0.84)

URI United Rentals (0.84)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LUMN

DQ Daqo New Energy (-0.01)

AMPY Amplify Energy (0.01)

TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.01)

GIS General Mills (0.01)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LUMN

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.78)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.79)

ASML New York Shares (-0.81)

BP BP (-0.84)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.87)

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