M Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Macy's strategic restructuring and improved digital transformation could stabilize revenues, evidenced by the historical correlation of growth efforts increasing stock value POSITIVE ( , 24]).




Bearish Case: High store closures and financial pressures due to market headwinds suggest continued instability, supported by recent price trends and elevated implied volatility NEGATIVE ( , 22, 20]).




Potential Outcomes:
  1. 30% Store closures stabilize earnings and boost stock ( ).
  2. 50% Continued financial struggles lead to further decline ( , 22]).
  3. 20% Mixed factors stabilize price (HeliumHelium).




Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility and bearish outlook, sell short-term call credit spreads exploiting elevated premiums. Strategy: sell $17 call, buy $18.5 call, 1-month expiration. This captures premium decay and balances bearish risk effectively. Reap 68% profit odds, leveraging volatility structure ().



January 05, 2025


Macy's Forecast

M        Macy's











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with M



ALV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALV  Autoliv (0.85)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (0.84)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.83)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (0.82)


DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to M



DELL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DELL  Dell (0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.02)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.04)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (-0.05)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (-0.05)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against M



EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.76)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.77)


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.77)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.78)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.79)









Become a more profitable investor with AI optimized trading strategies






×

Chat with M


 Ask any question about M!