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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Macy's shift to digital sales and strategic partnerships, combined with stable market volatility, suggests potential growth, especially with consumer sentiment improving from strategic initiatives.



Bearish Case: Persisting financial challenges, high market competition, and negative historical trends indicate potential further decline, as suggested by negative implied volatility trends and decreasing stock price.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance: Continued struggles depress prices further due to competition and financial woes.
  • 30% chance: Strategic shifts stabilize stock around $12.
  • 20% chance: Positive consumer trends and partnerships lead to modest recovery.



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May 20, 2025











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to M


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.0)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against M


GENI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GENI  Genius Sports (-0.72)


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PPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPL  PPL (-0.81)







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