M Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Macy's may leverage its brand strength and potential strategic partnerships to enhance revenue, especially if consumer trends favor department stores.




Bearish Case: Persistent competition from e-commerce giants and operational challenges threaten Macy's recovery, likely leading to further declines in stock value.




Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% continued struggles lead to decline.

2) 35% new strategies stabilize price.

3) 25% external factors cause unexpected shifts.




Trading Oracle: Utilize the Bearish Long Volatility strategy, given high implied volatility and continuing retail challenges, which aligns with anticipated downside movements.



April 17, 2025










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