M Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Macy's strategic shifts, including smaller stores and partnerships, coupled with improved digital presence, could drive revenue growth and market confidence.




Bearish Case: Persisting financial struggles, store closures, and high competition in the retail sector suggest further stock decline, exacerbated by operational challenges.




Potential Outcomes: 40% chance strategies boost revenue; 45% risk financial woes drive decline; 15% mix of factors stabilizes stock.




Trading Oracle: Sell a short-term call credit spread by targeting strikes slightly above the current price. Utilize high implied volatility to gain premium decay. Focus on a 1-month expiry, capturing a favorable risk-to-reward structure. Opt for strikes around $15-$16 given current bear trends and volatility.



February 11, 2025


Macy's Forecast

M        Macy's











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GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (0.02)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against M



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ALHC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALHC  Alignment Healthcare (-0.8)


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SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.83)


LTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTH  Life Time (-0.83)









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