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MAC Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent strategic asset sales and improved balance sheet strengthen Macerich's financial position. Lower implied volatility and mean-reversion characteristics suggest potential for positive price corrections.

Bearish Case: Despite improvements, MAC's historical performance reflects long-term decline, with high volatility at lower strikes indicating market skepticism. A challenging retail environment and debt concerns persist.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 35% chance of moderate recovery from strategic improvements.
2) 40% chance of stagnation due to market skepticism.
3) 25% chance of decline amid economic pressures and tenant bankruptcies.

March 21, 2025

Macerich Forecast

MAC Macerich

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MAC

AXP American Express (0.93)

IVV BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.91)

ARKK ARK Innovation (0.91)

APO Apollo (0.9)

MTB M & T (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MAC

QGEN Qiagen (-0.0)

PRAA PRA (0.0)

ENVX Enovix (0.01)

INTU Intuit (0.01)

EIX Edison International (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MAC

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.74)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.74)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.76)

STM New York Shares (-0.76)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.8)

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