Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Macerich's strategic asset management and recent positive sentiment in retail real estate indicate potential for sustained price recovery. Low implied volatility relative to historical norms suggests minimized risk and opportunity for upward movement.

Bearish Case: Continued high vacancy rates and market skepticism due to economic pressures may lead to further declines in MAC's stock. Recent flat price action and large historical downturns in performance indicate persistent vulnerabilities.

Potential Outcomes:

• 30% chance of a price recovery above $22 driven by strategic asset enhancements.
• 40% chance MAC stagnates near $20 due to mixed retail sector signals.
• 30% chance of a drop below $18 amid economic headwinds and tenant issues.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish credit spread using MAC 20.00 and 18.00 puts, capitalizing on lower implied volatility and positioning for potential upside. Target a modest return with a high probability of profit based on current market sentiment. Maintain awareness of macroeconomic indicators affecting retail trends.

December 20, 2024