Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Low implied volatility suggests that market sentiment may be underestimating potential price recovery. Positive historical return trends may indicate favorable outcomes for longer holding periods, positioning MAC for upward momentum.

Bearish Case: High historical declines and consistent skepticism could exacerbate downside risks, especially if upcoming financial results fail to impress or if market conditions worsen, leading to further volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of medium-term recovery linked to improved asset management.

2. 30% chance of price stagnation due to market uncertainty.

3. 30% chance of continued decline driven by negative market sentiment.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish diagonal spread: buy longer dated MAC call options (e.g., $19.0) while selling nearer expiration calls (e.g., $20.0) to capitalize on potential IV spikes post-announcement but mitigate short-term risks. This strategy targets high reward-to-risk ratios, making the most of recent positive sentiment and price movement.

October 27, 2024