Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: McKesson's robust investments in AI could yield efficiency gains, potentially driving profitability and enhancing share value amidst a stable operating environment.

Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges could inflict reputational damage and result in financial penalties, potentially stalling growth and leading to stock price declines.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance: Legal issues result in moderate financial impact.

2. 30% chance: AI efficiencies lead to sustained stock growth.

3. 15% chance: Market corrections due to macroeconomic downturns affect MCK negatively.

4. 5% chance: Unique catalyst leads to significant upward spike in stock price.

Trading Oracle: Given high near-term volatility, consider a bearish credit spread selling MCK 510/520 calls, capitalizing on time decay with an 80% probability of profit. This approach leverages rapid theta decay in a stable or downward market. Assess market reactions to upcoming earnings reports to refine timing.

October 31, 2024