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MLI Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Mueller Industries’ strong financials and growth in HVAC sectors position it well for future growth, despite mixed social sentiment. Historical mean-reversion supports potential price recovery.

Bearish Case: Anticipated commodity price fluctuations and market volatility may pressure MLI’s earnings. Elevated implied volatility reflects market concerns, aligning with Helium's bearish price forecast (-2.25%) Helium.

Potential Outcomes: Strong housing demand recovery drives growth (40%). Commodity volatility impacts earnings negatively (40%). Strategic acquisitions boost value (20%).

Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread: sell two $85 calls and buy three $90 calls. Expire in 36 days. Helium indicates an 81% market odds of profit with a potential 21% return (66% annualized), leveraging higher implied volatility.

January 17, 2025

Mueller Industries Forecast

MLI Mueller Industries

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MLI

PPA Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco Aerospace & Defense (0.98)

COOP Mr. Cooper (0.96)

CRS Carpenter Technology (0.96)

ERJ Embraer (0.95)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MLI

ACN Accenture (0.01)

FANG Diamondback Energy (0.02)

OGN Organon (-0.02)

UWMC UWM Holdings Corporation (0.04)

BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical (-0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MLI

LEA Lear (-0.89)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.91)

XRX Xerox (-0.91)

SHLS Shoals (-0.92)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.93)

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