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MMS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Strong historical return patterns suggest potential for price recovery. Increased call option interest indicates growing bullish sentiment.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility signals uncertainty, with persistent downward trends in price. Recent option volume skews bearishly with heavy puts.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price stabilizes around $70 (50% chance): Volatility trends balance out bearish sentiments.
  • Price dips to $60 (30% chance): Further negative sentiment from unresolved issues.
  • Price rises to $75 (20% chance): Market stabilizes with potential positive catalysts.
    •



    Trading Oracle: Enter a bullish debit spread using MMS calls at $70-$75 with a three-month outlook. This hedges against downside risk while capitalizing on potential volatility decrease and positive price correction as derived from implied volatility comparison and historical returns.


    February 19, 2025


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