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MOH Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: MOH benefits from strong membership growth and strategic acquisitions, bolstered by lower costs and positive healthcare policy environments.



Bearish Case: Persistent medical cost pressures, regulatory challenges, and insider sales create significant downside risks, potentially squeezing margins and affecting earnings.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Stable costs and growth boost stock (60%).

2. Cost pressures hit margins (25%).

3. Regulatory impacts harm operations (10%).

4. Unexpected downturns (5%).



Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads targeting March 2025 $300 calls. Leverage the volatility contraction shown in the surfaces and target near-term expiries due to stable implied volatility. This offers strong reward to risk potential with tight stop-loss management.


January 29, 2025


Molina Healthcare Forecast

MOH        Molina Healthcare

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ABEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABEV  Ambev (0.82)


IMNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMNM  Immunome (0.82)


IQV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IQV  IQVIA (0.77)


BGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BGS  B&G Foods (0.76)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MOH


TALK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TALK  Talkspace (0.01)


VOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOD  Vodafone (0.01)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.01)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.02)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MOH


VGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGT  Vanguard Information Technology (-0.79)


WRBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WRBY  Warby Parker (-0.79)


GME Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GME  Gamestop (-0.8)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (-0.81)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.84)







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