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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: MPC shows strong earnings and resilient performance despite market fluctuations. Implied volatility is trending stable, indicating investor confidence. A projected demand increase for oil will likely lead to price appreciation.



Bearish Case: Environmental liabilities remain a significant risk, threatening profitability. Elevated implied volatility suggests market nervousness, and a potential economic downturn could pressure oil prices lower.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued growth (55% chance): Strong demand and stable operations.
  • Price decline (30% chance): Environmental incidents impact margins.
  • Stagnation (15% chance): Balancing mixed market signals.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling near-term $160 puts and buying $155 puts, targeting an expiration within 25 days. Expected profit ratio is 1:0.2 with high probability at 76%. Utilize stable implied volatility for further upside potential.


November 26, 2024


Marathon Petroleum Forecast

MPC        Marathon Petroleum

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPC


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (0.92)


SWBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SWBI  Smith & Wesson Brands (0.78)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.76)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.74)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPC


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.01)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (0.01)


ABEV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABEV  Ambev (-0.01)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.01)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPC


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (-0.77)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.77)


GILD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GILD  Gilead Sciences (-0.78)


APLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLD  Applied Blockchain (-0.79)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.87)







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