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MPC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Despite recent declines, MPC's history of strong financials and low volatility suggest potential stability or growth, especially with positive social sentiment and strategic buybacks.



Bearish Case: Ongoing environmental liabilities, recent mean reversion, and a 16.6% price drop indicate possible continued decline, with elevated implied volatility reflecting market concern.



Potential Outcomes: Continued growth at 50%, potential decline at 30%, stagnation at 20%. Growth is backed by strong performance; liabilities pose decline risks; balanced financial strategies could stabilize prices.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling $130 puts and buying $125 puts, targeting expiration within 28 days. Utilize stable implied volatility and 69% market odds for profitability, aligning with positive social sentiment and MPC's resilient financials.


December 24, 2024


Marathon Petroleum Forecast

MPC        Marathon Petroleum

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPC


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.85)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.83)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.81)


WFRD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WFRD  Weatherford International plc - New (0.78)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPC


ZD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZD  Ziff Davis (-0.0)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.01)


IRBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRBT  Irobot (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPC


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.71)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (-0.72)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.73)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (-0.77)


TVTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TVTX  Travere Therapeutics (-0.83)







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