MPC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MPC shows stability with a flat implied volatility term structure and historically strong returns. The recent acquisition boosts capacity, supporting growth potential despite market volatility.




Bearish Case: Environmental regulations and stagnant short-term price action create headwinds. Higher option put volumes indicate investor caution amidst regulatory pressures and industry transitions.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth (50%): Strong market positioning and strategic expansions.
  • Decline (30%): Regulatory risks and demand shifts.
  • Stagnation (20%): Balancing factors and external uncertainties.



May 21, 2025


Marathon Petroleum Forecast

MPC        Marathon Petroleum











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPC



MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.91)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.91)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (0.89)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (0.89)


SBLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBLK  Star Bulk Carriers (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPC



NTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTR  Nutrien (0.0)


FCEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCEL  Fuelcell Energy (0.0)


EGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EGO  Eldorado Gold (0.01)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.01)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPC



TPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPR  Tapestry (-0.77)


USAU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USAU  U.S. Gold (-0.78)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.78)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.79)


EOSE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOSE  Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.84)









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