MS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Morgan Stanley's robust Q2 earnings, strong wealth management growth, and recovery in investment banking point towards sustained price appreciation.


Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and macroeconomic risks could pressure MS's earnings, leading to potential short-term price declines.


Potential Outcomes: Regulatory penalties (25%), Wealth management growth (45%), Trading revenues rebound (30%).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish short volatility credit spreads. Sell 5 $101.0 strike puts and buy 8 $97.0 strike puts expiring in 7 days. Strategy market odds: 67%, Helium odds: 67%, return of risk 1 to make 0.2. Align with strong recent earnings and favorable implied volatility.


July 21, 2024


Morgan Stanley Forecast

MS      Morgan Stanley











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CFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFG  Citizens Financial (0.93)


HBM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBM  Hudbay Minerals (0.92)


FCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FCX  Freeport-McMoRan (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MS



INSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSP  Inspire Medical Systems (0.0)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (0.0)


OHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OHI  Omega Healthcare Investors (0.0)


KNSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNSL  Kinsale (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MS



SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.8)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.84)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.84)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.85)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)





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