MTN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MTN's European expansion and investor confidence, reflected in a high price-to-book ratio and historical mean-reversion nature, could spur price recovery.




Bearish Case: Legal challenges and reduced skier visits, along with volatility dynamics, indicate potential for further price declines.




Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of price rebound with seasonal demand; 35% decline due to legal and market issues; 20% stability with balanced factors.




Trading Oracle:
Execute Bullish Short Volatility Strategy
Exploiting current volatility by selling ATM puts while buying OOTM puts leverages market mean-reverting behavior & earnings outlook.



April 08, 2025


Vail Resorts Forecast

MTN        Vail Resorts











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MTN



DIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DIN  Dine Brands (0.74)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (0.72)


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (0.71)


PPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPG  PPG Industries (0.69)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MTN



ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.0)


ROIV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROIV  Roivant Sciences (0.0)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (-0.0)


PFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PFE  Pfizer (0.01)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MTN



SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (-0.7)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.71)


ECL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ECL  Ecolab (-0.72)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.73)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.73)









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