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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Vail's extensive resort portfolio capitalizes on peak ski season demand, bolstered by favorable snowfall and a robust price-to-book ratio, indicating strong investor confidence.



Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges, union strikes, and poor stock performance may weigh heavily on MTN, exacerbating financial pressures amidst rising operational costs.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of price recovery due to strong ski season.
  • 35% risk of continued decline due to strikes and costs.
  • 25% stability from mitigated legal impacts.



Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish debit spread by buying a $175 call and selling a $180 call, targeting March expiry. This leverages high near-term implied volatility to capture potential price recovery during ski season, with controlled downside risk.


February 08, 2025


Vail Resorts Forecast

MTN        Vail Resorts

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