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MTN Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: MTN's European expansion and investor confidence, reflected in a high price-to-book ratio and historical mean-reversion nature, could spur price recovery.

Bearish Case: Legal challenges and reduced skier visits, along with volatility dynamics, indicate potential for further price declines.

Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of price rebound with seasonal demand; 35% decline due to legal and market issues; 20% stability with balanced factors.

Trading Oracle: Execute Bullish Short Volatility Strategy
Exploiting current volatility by selling ATM puts while buying OOTM puts leverages market mean-reverting behavior & earnings outlook.

April 08, 2025

Vail Resorts Forecast

MTN Vail Resorts

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MTN

M Macy's (0.76)

ATKR Atkore (0.75)

GES Guess (0.72)

W Wayfair (0.7)

CLSK Cleanspark (0.68)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MTN

AME Ametek (-0.01)

PLBY PLBY (0.02)

ADI Analog Devices (0.02)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.02)

ENVX Enovix (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MTN

SATS EchoStar (-0.65)

GL Globe Life (-0.7)

PPC Pilgrim's Pride (-0.72)

PM Philip Morris International (-0.75)

KGC Kinross Gold (-0.76)

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