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Bullish Case: MUFG could thrive due to potential Asian market growth and stronger financial positioning following strategic investments, indicating a possible price increase beyond current levels.

Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and insider trading investigations may undermine investor confidence, leading to a decline in stock value as market volatility persists.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery boosts MUFG growth (60%);

2. Regulatory penalties significantly impact reputation (40%);

3. Expansion in Asian markets drives substantial returns (70%);

4. Continued high volatility leads to investor caution (65%).

Trading Oracle: A credit spread targeting December 2024 expirations seems prudent, leveraging the high implied volatility while the market is cautious. This strategy captures premium from high volatility positions, with a bearish tilt reflecting potential regulatory impacts.

August 25, 2024